Compare and contrast the concepts of scenario planning and traditional forecasting.

Fully explain both concepts so that the reader understands the differences, advantages, and disadvantages of each.

Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a process planning method that helps to better predict the future outcome by using feedback from key external pressures or external factors that put pressure on the topic. The external forces are then used to run alternate scenarios, again and again using changes from these factors and external forces.   The use of scenario planning first defines the topic or issue. Once identified and information that could change the outcome is clearly linked to the pressures of peripheral forces used in the process of predicting the change. There are peripheral forces that are measured to better run the scenarios and other indicators that must be taken into account to predict the outcome. 

Predicting the future using planning techniques all involves a certain amount of unknown and therefor risk.  Minor changes or pressures can change the future based on the scenarios used in the planning techniques.  Planning with scenario planning would leverage a set of tools that would be considered dynamic. Predictions or in this case planning from different current drivers or pressures help to plan the future (Wade, 2012). 

Traditional forecasting

Historical data and measured information are the foundation for traditional forecasting.  If the forecasting is based on a business then resources that are reviews are inventory, budgets, performance, and growth in the market. The key to understanding traditional forecasting is the reliance on as much historical data on the subject.  The more data the better the traditional forecasting is. In the case of our business example, the more years in business the more data can be reviewed to help forecast or predict the future of the company. 

Differences

Scenario planning allows the processes to adapt to change from inputs using this planning method and changing the forecast significantly or very little depending on the pressure. Scenario planning allows the use of different scenarios to better predict the likelihood of a greater change prediction, which is a reaction to the forces aiding the change. 

Scenario planning has some disadvantages such as the need for planning and length of time need to identify and collect the driving factors. 

Traditional forecasting is not a modeling method that allows the behavioral changes to hep predict the accuracy of the future.  The data from historical records are not great predictors while the external forces of society change and adapt with greater frequency. 

Traditional forecasting has some disadvantages such as only looking at past data, records, metrics but it should not be the only factors for predicting the future. 

Don’t be another BlackBerry.

One of the forecasting pressures that lead downfall of the BlackBerry solution included the “blinders” to create features for enterprise customers. Ignoring the public market and appealing to mass consumers, the easy to navigate interface and app store choices provided Apple a legion of fans (Savov, 2016). 



Reference 

Savov, Vlad. “BlackBerry’s Success Led to Its Failure.” The Verge, September 30, 2016. https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/30/13119924/blackberry-failure-success.

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning. Wiley Professional, Reference & Trade (Wiley K&L). https://coloradotech.vitalsource.com/books/9781118237410


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